Working Paper: NBER ID: w20258
Authors: Stephen Chaudoin; Zachary Peskowitz; Christopher Stanton
Abstract: There is tremendous variation in conflict intensity both across and within civil conflict spells. Using an instrumental variables approach and a rich set of dynamic, empirical models, we find that the intensity of conflict is negatively related to per-capita income. Economic conditions also affect conflict dynamics, as higher per-capita income reduces the persistence of past conflict intensity.
Keywords: civil conflict; intensity; dynamics; per capita income; instrumental variables
JEL Codes: C23; D74; N40
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| past conflict intensity (D74) | future conflict intensity (D74) |
| higher per capita income (P17) | lower intensity of conflict (D74) |
| higher income levels (D31) | quicker returns to normal levels of conflict intensity (D74) |
| economic conditions (E66) | persistence of conflict intensity (D74) |