Working Paper: NBER ID: w20213
Authors: Oeindrila Dube; Suresh Naidu
Abstract: Does foreign military assistance strengthen or further weaken fragile states facing internal conflict? Aid may strengthen the state by bolstering its repressive capacity vis-à-vis armed non-state actors, or weaken it if resources are diverted to these very groups. We examine how U.S. military aid affects political violence in Colombia. We exploit the allocation of U.S. military aid to Colombian military bases, and compare how aid affects municipalities with and without bases. We use an instrument based on worldwide increases in U.S. military aid (excluding Latin America). We find that U.S. military assistance leads to differential increases in attacks by paramilitaries, but has no effect on guerrilla attacks. Aid also results in more paramilitary (but not guerrilla) homicides during election years, particularly in politically competitive municipalities. The findings suggest that foreign military assistance may strengthen armed non-state actors, undermining domestic political institutions.
Keywords: US military aid; political conflict; Colombia; paramilitary violence; guerrilla attacks
JEL Codes: H56; O54
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| US military assistance (H56) | increased paramilitary violence (H56) |
| increased US military aid (F35) | increased paramilitary attacks (H56) |
| US military assistance (H56) | no effect on guerrilla violence (D74) |
| increased military aid (H56) | increased paramilitary homicides (H56) |
| increased military aid (H56) | diversion of resources from Colombian military to paramilitary groups (H56) |
| diversion of resources from Colombian military to paramilitary groups (H56) | exacerbation of political conflict (D74) |