Working Paper: NBER ID: w2021
Authors: Lisa M. Lynch
Abstract: This paper presents an analysis of the determinants of re-employment probabilities for young workers in the U.S. Using data from the new National Longitudinal Survey youth cohort a model is developed to analyze the transition probabilities from nonemployment to employment. The key factors examined include personal characteristics, unemployment income, local demand conditions, and duration dependence. There are significant differences between the labor market experiences of whites and nonwhites, and males and females. High school dropouts have many more difficulties in the labor market than those who remain in school longer and/or receive other types of training. Local demand conditions are a strong determinant of the duration of spells of nonemployment and there appears to be strong evidence of negative duration dependence in re-employment probabilities for both young males and young females.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: No JEL codes provided
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| personal characteristics (being nonwhite, fewer years of schooling) (J79) | probability of reemployment (J68) |
| local demand conditions (local unemployment rate) (J23) | probability of reemployment (J68) |
| vocational training (M53) | probability of reemployment (for females) (J68) |
| duration of nonemployment (J65) | probability of reemployment (J68) |