Working Paper: NBER ID: w20187
Authors: Jaewon Choi; Matthew P. Richardson; Robert F. Whitelaw
Abstract: This paper uses contingent claim asset pricing and exploits capital structure priority to better understand the relation between corporate security returns and interest rate changes (i.e., duration). We show theoretically and, using a novel dataset, confirm empirically that lower priority securities in the capital structure, such as subordinated or distressed debt and equity, have low or even negative durations because these securities are effectively short higher priority, high duration fixed rate debt. This finding has important implications for interpreting existing results on (i) the time-varying correlation between the aggregate stock market and government bonds, (ii) the use of bond factors for multifactor asset pricing models and forecasting bond and stock returns, (iii) the Fisher effect and inflation, and (iv) the betas of corporate bonds.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: G12; G13; G32
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| lower priority securities (G12) | low or negative durations (C41) |
| capital structure (G32) | sensitivity of security returns to interest rate changes (G12) |
| leverage of equity index (G12) | negative sensitivity of index returns to bond returns (G12) |
| equity (D63) | negative relation between stock returns and interest rates (E43) |
| time-varying covariation between firm's assets and interest rates (E43) | exacerbation of negative relation between stock returns and interest rates (E43) |