Working Paper: NBER ID: w20129
Authors: Massimo Morelli; Dominic Rohner
Abstract: This paper highlights the importance of natural resource concentration and ethnic group regional concentration for ethnic conflict. A new type of bargaining failure due to multiple types of potential conflicts (and hence multiple threat points) is identified. The theory predicts war to be more likely when resource and group concentration are high, and the empirical analysis, both at the country level and at the ethnic group level, confirms the essential role of geographic concentration variables for civil war.
Keywords: civil war; natural resources; ethnic conflict; bargaining failure
JEL Codes: D74; O12; Q34
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| resource concentration + ethnic group concentration (R23) | civil war onset (D74) |
| oil gini (D31) | civil war onset (D74) |
| ethnic group resource abundance + ethnic group concentration (J15) | civil war onset (D74) |