Working Paper: NBER ID: w20087
Authors: Christina D. Romer; David H. Romer
Abstract: From the early 1950s to the early 1990s, increases in Social Security benefits in the United States varied widely in size and timing, and were only rarely undertaken in response to short-run macroeconomic developments. This paper uses these benefit increases to investigate the macroeconomic effects of changes in transfer payments. It finds a large, immediate, and statistically significant response of consumption to permanent changes in transfers. The response appears to decline at longer horizons, however, and there is no clear evidence of effects on industrial production or employment. These effects differ sharply from the effects of relatively exogenous tax changes: the impact of transfers is faster, but much less persistent and dramatically smaller overall. Finally, we find strong statistical and narrative evidence of a sharply contractionary monetary policy response to permanent benefit increases that is not present for tax changes. This may account for the lower persistence of the consumption effects of transfers and their failure to spread to broader indicators of economic activity.
Keywords: Social Security; Transfer Payments; Macroeconomics; Consumption; Fiscal Policy
JEL Codes: E21; E62; E63; H31; N12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| permanent increases in social security benefits (H55) | increase in consumption (E21) |
| permanent increases in social security benefits (H55) | decrease in persistence of consumption effects (D15) |
| permanent increases in social security benefits (H55) | contractionary monetary policy response (E52) |
| temporary benefit changes (J65) | small increase in consumption (D19) |
| permanent increases in social security benefits (H55) | no broader economic activity effects (F69) |