Working Paper: NBER ID: w20079
Authors: Arnaud Costinot; Dave Donaldson; Cory B. Smith
Abstract: A large agronomic literature models the implications of climate change for a variety of crops and locations around the world. The goal of the present paper is to quantify the macro-level consequences of these micro-level shocks. Using an extremely rich micro-level dataset that contains information about the productivity---both before and after climate change---of each of 10 crops for each of 1.7 million fields covering the surface of the Earth, we find that the impact of climate change on these agricultural markets would amount to a 0.26% reduction in global GDP when trade and production patterns are allowed to adjust.
Keywords: Climate Change; Agricultural Markets; Comparative Advantage; Global GDP
JEL Codes: F0; O0; Q0; R0
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| climate change (Q54) | differential productivity changes across crops and regions (O49) |
| differential productivity changes across crops and regions (O49) | comparative advantage (F11) |
| climate change (Q54) | global GDP reduction (F69) |
| differential productivity changes across crops and regions (O49) | global GDP reduction (F69) |
| inability to reallocate production within fields (D24) | global GDP reduction (F69) |
| international trade (F19) | mitigation of adverse effects of climate change (Q54) |