Working Paper: NBER ID: w20065
Authors: Raven Molloy; Christopher L. Smith; Abigail Wozniak
Abstract: Interstate migration has decreased steadily since the 1980s. We show that this trend is not primarily related to demographic and socioeconomic factors, but instead appears to be connected to a concurrent secular decline in labor market transitions. We explore a number of reasons for the declines in geographic and labor market transitions, and find the strongest support for explanations related to a decrease in the net benefit to changing employers. Our preferred interpretation is that the distribution of relevant outside offers has shifted in a way that has made labor market transitions, and thus geographic transitions, less desirable to workers.
Keywords: Migration; Labor Market; Transitions
JEL Codes: J0; J11; J6; N3
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| decline in labor market transitions (J63) | decline in interstate migration (R23) |
| decline in benefits associated with changing employers (J32) | decline in labor market transitions (J63) |
| decline in labor market transitions (J63) | decline in geographic mobility (J62) |