Working Paper: NBER ID: w20064
Authors: Daron Acemoglu; Simon Johnson
Abstract: Bloom, Canning, and Fink (2014) argue that the results in Acemoglu and Johnson (2006, 2007) are not robust because initial level of life expectancy (in 1940) should be included in our regressions of changes in GDP per capita on changes in life expectancy. We assess their claims controlling for potential lagged effects of initial life expectancy using data from 1900, employing a nonlinear estimator suggested by their framework, and using information from microeconomic estimates on the effects of improving health. There is no evidence for a positive effect of life expectancy on GDP per capita in this important historical episode.
Keywords: health; economic growth; life expectancy; GDP
JEL Codes: I15; N40; O15
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| initial life expectancy (J17) | GDP per capita (O49) |
| life expectancy (J17) | GDP per capita (O49) |
| predicted mortality (J17) | life expectancy (J17) |
| life expectancy (after 1940) (J17) | GDP per capita growth (O49) |
| life expectancy (J17) | GDP per capita (1940-1980) (P24) |