Working Paper: NBER ID: w19926
Authors: Gregory Clark; Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke; Alan M. Taylor
Abstract: Many previous studies of the role of trade during the British Industrial Revolution have found little or no role for trade in explaining British living standards or growth rates. We construct a three-region model of the world in which Britain trades with North America and the rest of the world, and calibrate the model to data from the 1760s and 1850s. We find that while trade had only a small impact on British welfare in the 1760s, it had a very large impact in the 1850s. This contrast is robust to a large range of parameter perturbations. Biased technological change and population growth were key in explaining Britain's growing dependence on trade during the Industrial Revolution.
Keywords: trade; industrial revolution; welfare; economic growth; Britain
JEL Codes: F11; F14; F43; N10; N70; O40
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Trade (F19) | British welfare (1760s) (I38) |
| Trade (F19) | British welfare (1850s) (I38) |
| Technological change (O33) | Trade (F19) |
| Population growth (J11) | Trade (F19) |
| Unbalanced productivity growth (O49) | Trade (F19) |
| Trade (F19) | Cotton textiles sector dependence (L67) |