Working Paper: NBER ID: w19848
Authors: Abhijit Banerjee; Esther Duflo
Abstract: This paper discusses the two leading views of history and political institutions. For some scholars, institutions are mainly products of historical logic, while for others, accidents, leaders, and decisions have a significant impact. We argue that while there is clear evidence that history matters and has long-term effects, there is not enough data to help us distinguish between the two views. Faced with this uncertainty, what is a social scientist to do? We argue that given the possibility that policy decisions indeed make a difference, it makes sense to assume they do and to try to improve policymaking.
Keywords: political economy; determinism
JEL Codes: N30; O1
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| historical events (N94) | political institutions (D02) |
| historical events (N94) | economic performance (P17) |
| colonization (F54) | political institutions (D02) |
| colonization (F54) | economic outcomes (F61) |
| British land-revenue systems in India (Q15) | economic productivity (O49) |
| extractive institutions (O17) | oligarchic equilibria (D43) |
| droughts or floods (Q54) | persistent poverty (I32) |
| drought during the Mexican Revolution (N52) | land redistribution policies (P26) |