Working Paper: NBER ID: w19830
Authors: John G. Fernald; Charles I. Jones
Abstract: Modern growth theory suggests that more than 3/4 of growth since 1950 reflects rising educational attainment and research intensity. As these transition dynamics fade, U.S. economic growth is likely to slow at some point. However, the rise of China, India, and other emerging economies may allow another few decades of rapid growth in world researchers. Finally, and more speculatively, the shape of the idea production function introduces a fundamental uncertainty into the future of growth. For example, the possibility that artificial intelligence will allow machines to replace workers to some extent could lead to higher growth in the future.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: O4
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Educational attainment (I21) | GDP growth (O49) |
| Research intensity (I23) | GDP growth (O49) |
| Emerging economies (China and India) (O53) | U.S. economic growth (O51) |
| Technological advancement (O00) | GDP growth (O49) |