Working Paper: NBER ID: w1982
Authors: Henry Saffer; Michael Grossman
Abstract: This paper presents estimates of the effects of the drinking age and \nbeer taxes on youth motor vehicle mortality. The data set employed is a \ntime series, from 1975 to 1981, of cross sections of the 48 contiguous states. \nSeparate regressions for 15 to 11 year olds, 18 to 20 year olds and \n21 to 24 year olds are presented. A simultaneous estimation model is used \nto account for the endogeneity .of the drinking age. The results show that \nduring the sample period an increase in the drinking age to 21, which is \napproximately 8 percent, would have reduced mortality in the 18 to 20 year \nold group by approximately 14 percent. Also a 100 percent increase in the \nreal beer tax, which is approximately $1.50 per case, would reduce highway \nmortality of 18 to 20 year olds by about 19 percent. This increase in the \nbeer tax would also reduce mortality by about 8 percent for 15 to 17 year \nolds and by about 18 percent for the 21 to 24 year olds.
Keywords: drinking age; motor vehicle mortality; beer taxes; youth accidents
JEL Codes: I18; H2
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Increase in drinking age to 21 (I19) | Reduce mortality rates among 18 to 20-year-olds (I12) |
| 100% increase in real beer tax (H29) | Reduce highway mortality for 18 to 20-year-olds (R48) |
| 100% increase in real beer tax (H29) | Reduce mortality for 15 to 17-year-olds (I14) |
| 100% increase in real beer tax (H29) | Reduce mortality for 21 to 24-year-olds (I12) |
| Youth mortality rates (J13) | Influence drinking age laws (K16) |
| Sentiment against alcohol (L66) | Influence highway mortality rates (R48) |
| Sentiment against alcohol (L66) | Influence pressure to change drinking age laws (R48) |