Working Paper: NBER ID: w19795
Authors: Melissa S. Kearney; Phillip B. Levine
Abstract: This paper explores the impact of the introduction of the widely viewed MTV show 16 and Pregnant on teen childbearing. The reality TV show follows the lives of pregnant teenagers during the final months of their pregnancy and early months of motherhood. We match Vital Statistics birth data to Nielson television ratings data to investigate whether exposure to the show had an impact on teen childbearing rates. We implement an instrumental variables (IV) strategy using local area MTV ratings data from a pre-period to predict local area 16 and Pregnant ratings. We also introduce event study methods, utilizing the specific timing of the show’s introduction to identify a causal effect. The results of this analysis imply that the introduction of this MTV show led to a 4.3 percent reduction in teen births in the 18 months following its initial airing. This accounts for 24 percent of the overall decline in teen births in the United States during that period. We supplement these findings with an examination of data from Google Trends and Twitter, which suggest that this show led to increased interest in contraceptive use and abortion, as captured by internet search and tweeting behavior.
Keywords: Teen Childbearing; Media Influence; Reality Television; 16 and Pregnant
JEL Codes: J13; L82
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| MTV's 16 and Pregnant (J13) | attitudes toward teen pregnancy (J13) |
| teen birth rates (J13) | overall decline in teen birth rates in the U.S. (J13) |
| MTV's 16 and Pregnant (J13) | teen birth rates (J13) |
| pre-period MTV ratings (L82) | MTV's 16 and Pregnant ratings (J13) |
| MTV's 16 and Pregnant ratings (J13) | teen birth rates (J13) |