Working Paper: NBER ID: w19770
Authors: Trevor S. Gallen; Casey B. Mulligan
Abstract: The Affordable Care Act's taxes, subsidies, and regulations significantly alter terms of trade in both goods and factor markets. We use a multi-sector (intra-national) trade model to predict and quantify consequences of the Affordable Care Act for the incidence of health insurance coverage and patterns of labor usage. If and when the new exchange plans are competitive with employer-sponsored insurance (ESI), our model suggests that more than 20 million people will leave ESI as a consequence of the law. Behavioral changes that are captured in the model could add about 3 million participants to the new exchange plans: beyond those that would participate solely as the result of employer decisions to stop offering coverage and beyond those who would have been uninsured. Industries and regions will grow, decline, and change coverage on the basis of their relative demand for skilled labor.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: H3; I13; I18
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| ACA's provisions (G52) | ESI coverage (G52) |
| ACA's provisions (G52) | new exchange plans participation (G52) |
| ACA's provisions (G52) | labor market dynamics (J29) |
| means-tested subsidies (H53) | labor market behavior (J29) |
| employer penalties (J32) | labor market behavior (J29) |
| health insurance marketplaces (I11) | labor market behavior (J29) |
| tax wedges (H29) | labor market dynamics (J29) |
| ACA's implementation (G52) | behavioral changes (D91) |