Working Paper: NBER ID: w19721
Authors: Thomas Fujiwara; Kyle C. Meng; Tom Vogl
Abstract: We estimate habit formation in voting--the effect of past on current turnout--by exploiting transitory voting cost shocks. Using county-level data on U.S. presidential elections from 1952-2012, we find that precipitation on current and past election days reduces voter turnout. Our estimates imply that a 1-point decrease in past turnout lowers current turnout by 0.7-0.9 points. Consistent with a dynamic extension of the Downsian framework, current precipitation has stronger effects following previous rainy elections. Further analyses suggest that this habit formation operates by reinforcing the intrinsic satisfaction associated with voting.
Keywords: voter turnout; habit formation; precipitation; political participation
JEL Codes: D72; P16
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| 1 percentage point decrease in past voter turnout (K16) | current turnout (D72) |
| 1 millimeter increase in precipitation (Q54) | turnout (D72) |
| lagged precipitation shocks (Q54) | sensitivity of turnout to current cost shocks (E30) |
| current precipitation (Q54) | present and future voting behaviors (D72) |
| precipitation shock (Q54) | habit formation in voting behavior (D72) |