Working Paper: NBER ID: w1969
Authors: Christina Romer
Abstract: This paper shows that the existing estimates of prewar gross national \nproduct exaggerate the size of cyclical fluctuations. The source of the \nexaggeration is that the original Kuznets estimates are based on the \nassumption that GNP moves one-for-one with commodity output valued at \nproducer prices. New estimates of GNP for 1869-1918 are derived using the \nestimated aggregate relationship between GNP and commodity output for the \ninterwar and postwar eras. The new estimates of GNP indicate that the \nbusiness cycle is only slightly more severe in the pre-Worid War I era than in the post-World War II era.
Keywords: Gross National Product; Business Cycle; Historical Economic Analysis
JEL Codes: N10; N12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Kuznets estimates of GNP (E01) | cyclical fluctuations (E32) |
| GNP (E10) | commodity output (Q02) |
| commodity output (Q02) | GNP (E10) |
| GNP (E10) | cyclical fluctuations (E32) |
| new GNP series (E10) | cyclical properties (E32) |