Working Paper: NBER ID: w19655
Authors: Carmen M. Reinhart
Abstract: This Chartbook, which is a companion piece to Carmen M. Reinhart and Takeshi Tashiro (2013) "Crowding Out Redefined: The Role of Reserve Accumulation," focuses on nine Asian economies: China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Like its predecessor (Reinhart, 2010), it provides a pictorial history, on a country-by-country basis. In addition to public debt, we trace out the evolution of its composition between domestic and external borrowing. Total external debt (public and private) and domestic credit are also included through 2013. This combination gives a broad (but not complete) picture of a country's indebtedness. It should be ideally supplemented (where relevant) by indicators and trends in the shadow banking sector, as discussed in Shin (2013). It is also timeline of a country's creditworthiness and financial turmoil (including its history, if any, with IMF programs).
Keywords: Debt; Banking Crises; Asian Economies
JEL Codes: E51; F3; G01; H63; N25
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| increases in external public and private debt (F34) | banking crises (G01) |
| high levels of domestic and external debt restructuring (F34) | periods of near-default and banking crises (F65) |
| rising debt levels (H63) | increased vulnerability to financial crises (F65) |