Working Paper: NBER ID: w19627
Authors: Kevin Lang; Russell Weinstein
Abstract: Using data from three cycles of the National Survey of Family Growth, we investigate whether there were adverse consequences of teenage childbearing in the 1950s and 1960s, when most abortions were illegal, and access to the pill was limited. We find negative effects of teen motherhood on the likelihood of obtaining at least 12 years of education and on the number of marriages. We find positive effects of teen motherhood on family income, and, unsurprisingly, on the number of children. These effects are heterogeneous by predicted education. For those with high levels of predicted education, giving birth does not affect educational attainment but increases the probability of being divorced. For those predicted to be on the margin of high school completion, giving birth has strong negative effects on 12th grade completion and age at first marriage, while increasing the probability of never having married. In general, for less advantaged teens, motherhood appears to have increased expected family income but also the risk of not graduating from high school and never marrying. We find surprisingly little evidence that births affected teens conceiving pre- and post-marriage differently.
Keywords: teenage childbearing; Roe v. Wade; education; family income; marriage
JEL Codes: I31; J12; J13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Teen motherhood (J13) | likelihood of completing at least 12 years of education (I21) |
| Teen motherhood (J13) | age at first marriage (J12) |
| Teen motherhood (J13) | number of marriages (J12) |
| Teen motherhood (J13) | family income (D31) |
| Miscarriage (Y90) | likelihood of completing at least 12 years of education (I21) |
| Miscarriage (Y90) | age at first marriage (J12) |
| Miscarriage (Y90) | number of marriages (J12) |
| Miscarriage (Y90) | family income (D31) |