Working Paper: NBER ID: w19626
Authors: Tara Watson
Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of local immigration enforcement regimes on the migration decisions of the foreign born. Specifically, the analysis uses individual level American Community Survey data to examine the effect of recent 287(g) agreements which allow state and local law enforcement agencies to enforce Federal immigration law. The results suggest that one type of 287(g) agreement - the controversial local "task force" model emphasizing street enforcement - nearly doubles the propensity for the foreign-born to relocate within the United States. The largest effects are observed among non-citizens with college education, suggesting that aggressive enforcement policies may be missing their intended targets. No similar effect is found for the native born. After the extreme case of Maricopa County is excluded, there is no evidence that local enforcement causes the foreign-born to exit the United States or deters their entry from abroad. Rather, 287(g) task force agreements encourage the foreign born to move to a new Census division or region within the United States.
Keywords: immigration enforcement; location choice; 287g agreements; foreign-born population
JEL Codes: J15; J18; K37; R23; R28
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| 287g task force agreements (F53) | likelihood of foreign-born individuals relocating within the United States (J61) |
| full coverage of a local area with a task force agreement (R50) | probability of relocation for state exits (R23) |
| full coverage of a local area with a task force agreement (R50) | probability of relocation for census division exits (R23) |
| full coverage of a local area with a task force agreement (R50) | probability of relocation for census region exits (R23) |
| 287g task force agreements (F53) | outmigration from the United States (F22) |