Working Paper: NBER ID: w19625
Authors: Charles W. Calomiris; Jonathan Pritchett
Abstract: Abraham Lincoln's election produced Southern secession, Civil War, and abolition. Using a new database of slave sales from New Orleans, we examine the connections between political news and the prices of slaves for 1856-1861. We find that slave prices declined by roughly a third from their 1860 peak, reflecting increased southern pessimism regarding the possibility of war and the war's possible outcome. The South's decision to secede reflected the beliefs that the North would not invade to oppose secession, and that emancipation of slaves without compensation was unlikely, both of which were subsequently dashed by Lincoln's actions.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: G18; N31; N41; P16
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Political events (D72) | Slave prices (J47) |
| Lincoln's election (N91) | Slave prices (J47) |
| Firing on Fort Sumter (H56) | Slave prices (J47) |
| Lincoln's troop mobilization (H56) | Slave prices (J47) |
| Political news (D72) | Slave prices (J47) |
| Anticipatory reactions to political news (D84) | Slave prices (J47) |