Working Paper: NBER ID: w19366
Authors: Casey B. Mulligan
Abstract: Measured in percentage points, the Affordable Care Act will, by 2015, add about fourteen times more to average marginal labor income tax rates nationwide than the Massachusetts health reform added to average rates in Massachusetts following its 2006 statewide health reform. The rate impacts are different between the two laws for several reasons, especially that: the populations subject to the two laws are different, the Affordable Care Act's employer penalty is an order of magnitude greater, before either reform Massachusetts had already been offering more means-tested and employment-tested health insurance assistance than other states had, and the subsidized health insurance plans created by the Massachusetts reform were less substitutable for employer-provided insurance than are the subsidized plans to be created nationwide next year.
Keywords: Affordable Care Act; Romneycare; Labor Economics; Tax Rates; Health Reform
JEL Codes: E24; H31; I18; I38
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Affordable Care Act (ACA) (G52) | average marginal labor income tax rates (H31) |
| Romneycare (H51) | average marginal labor income tax rates (H31) |
| Affordable Care Act (ACA) (G52) | contraction in labor market (J49) |
| Romneycare (H51) | labor market contraction (J49) |
| Affordable Care Act (ACA) (G52) | labor supply incentives (J20) |
| Romneycare (H51) | labor supply incentives (J20) |
| Affordable Care Act (ACA) (G52) | work disincentives (J32) |