Working Paper: NBER ID: w19340
Authors: Patrick Hummel; Richard Holden
Abstract: We analyze a model of US presidential primary elections for a given party. There are two candidates, one of whom is a higher quality candidate. Voters reside in m different states and receive noisy private information about the identity of the superior candidate. States vote in some order, and this order is chosen by a social planner. We provide conditions under which the ordering of the states that maximizes the probability that the higher quality candidate is elected is for states to vote in order from smallest to largest populations and most accurate private information to least accurate private information.
Keywords: optimal primaries; order of states; social planning
JEL Codes: D47; D71; D72; K19
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| ordering states from smallest to largest population (R12) | probability that the higher quality candidate is elected (D79) |
| allowing states with more accurate private information to vote earlier (D72) | probability of electing the higher quality candidate (D79) |
| accurate information in early states (K16) | momentum (C69) |
| momentum (C69) | enables later states to better infer which candidate is superior (D79) |