Working Paper: NBER ID: w19335
Authors: David E. Bloom; Elizabeth T. Cafiero; Mark E. McGovern; Klaus Prettner; Anderson Stanciole; Jonathan Weiss; Samuel Bakkila; Larry Rosenberg
Abstract: This paper provides estimates of the economic impact of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in China and India for the period 2012-2030. Our estimates are derived using WHO's EPIC model of economic growth, which focuses on the negative effects of NCDs on labor supply and capital accumulation. We present results for the five main NCDs (cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, diabetes, and mental health). Our undiscounted estimates indicate that the cost of the five main NCDs will total USD 27.8 trillion for China and USD 6.2 trillion for India (in 2010 USD). For both countries, the most costly domains are cardiovascular disease and mental health, followed by respiratory disease. Our analyses also reveal that the costs are much larger in China than in India mainly because of China's higher income and older population. Rough calculations also indicate that WHO's Best Buys for addressing the challenge of NCDs are highly cost-beneficial.
Keywords: Noncommunicable Diseases; Economic Impact; China; India; Health Policy
JEL Codes: E13; I15; O40
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Increased prevalence of NCDs (I12) | Reduced labor supply (J22) |
| Reduced labor supply (J20) | Decreased national income (H69) |
| Increased prevalence of NCDs (I12) | Decreased national income (H69) |
| NCD-related health expenditures (H51) | Limited capital accumulation (E22) |
| Economic costs of NCDs (I12) | Economic productivity (O49) |
| Addressing NCDs (I12) | Economic savings (E21) |