Working Paper: NBER ID: w19270
Authors: Alec Smith; B. Douglas Bernheim; Colin Camerer; Antonio Rangel
Abstract: We investigate the feasibility of inferring the choices people would make (if given the opportunity) based on their neural responses to the pertinent prospects when they are not engaged in actual decision making. The ability to make such inferences is of potential value when choice data are unavailable, or limited in ways that render standard methods of estimating choice mappings problematic. We formulate prediction models relating choices to "non-choice" neural responses and use them to predict out-of-sample choices for new items and for new groups of individuals. The predictions are sufficiently accurate to establish the feasibility of our approach.
Keywords: neural responses; preferences; decision-making; economic modeling
JEL Codes: C91; D12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| non-choice neural responses (D87) | real choices (D01) |
| 10 percentage point increase in predicted probabilities (C29) | 8 percentage point increase in actual choice frequencies (C25) |