Working Paper: NBER ID: w19253
Authors: James D. Hamilton
Abstract: Much attention has been given to the recent growth of the U.S. federal debt. This paper examines the growth of federal liabilities that are not included in the officially reported numbers. These take the form of implicit or explicit government guarantees and commitments. The five major categories surveyed include support for housing, other loan guarantees, deposit insurance, actions taken by the Federal Reserve, and government trust funds. The total dollar value of notional off-balance-sheet commitments came to $70 trillion as of 2012, or 6 times the size of the reported on-balance-sheet debt. The paper reviews the potential costs and benefits of these off-balance-sheet commitments and their role in precipitating or mitigating the financial crisis of 2008.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: H6
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| off-balance-sheet federal liabilities (H69) | fiscal burden on future taxpayers (H60) |
| off-balance-sheet federal liabilities (H69) | adjustments in future spending or taxes (E62) |
| off-balance-sheet federal liabilities (H69) | financial strains experienced during the 2008 financial crisis (F65) |
| implicit and explicit government guarantees (H81) | fiscal burden on future taxpayers (H60) |