Working Paper: NBER ID: w19250
Authors: Pietro Ortoleva; Erik Snowberg
Abstract: This paper studies, theoretically and empirically, the role of overconfidence in political behavior. Our model of overconfidence in beliefs predicts that overconfidence leads to ideological extremeness, increased voter turnout, and increased strength of partisan identification. Moreover, the model makes many nuanced predictions about the patterns of ideology in society, and over a person's lifetime. These predictions are tested using unique data that measure the overconfidence, and standard political characteristics, of a nationwide sample of over 3,000 adults. Our predictions, eight in total, find strong support in this data. In particular, we document that overconfidence is a substantively and statistically important predictor of ideological extremeness and voter turnout.
Keywords: overconfidence; political behavior; ideological extremeness; voter turnout; partisan identification
JEL Codes: C83; D03; D72
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Overconfidence (D83) | Ideological Extremeness (P37) |
| Overconfidence (D81) | Voter Turnout (K16) |
| Ideological Extremeness (P37) | Voter Turnout (K16) |
| Overconfidence (D83) | Strength of Partisan Identification (D79) |
| Strength of Partisan Identification (D79) | Ideological Extremeness (P37) |
| Strength of Partisan Identification (D79) | Overconfidence (D83) |