Working Paper: NBER ID: w19165
Authors: Ralph Stinebrickner; Todd R. Stinebrickner
Abstract: Taking advantage of unique longitudinal data, we provide the first characterization of what college students believe at the time of entrance about their final major, relate these beliefs to actual major outcomes, and, provide an understanding of why students hold the initial beliefs about majors that they do. The data collection and analysis are based directly on a conceptual model in which a student's final major is best viewed as the end result of a learning process. We find that students enter school quite optimistic/interested about obtaining a science degree, but that relatively few students end up graduating with a science degree. The substantial overoptimism about completing a degree in science can be attributed largely to students beginning school with misperceptions about their ability to perform well academically in science.
Keywords: college major; dropout; initial beliefs; longitudinal data
JEL Codes: I21; I23; J0
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Initial beliefs about academic performance (D29) | Likelihood of graduating with a science degree (I23) |
| Initial beliefs about academic performance (D29) | Choice of major (M49) |
| Misperceptions about academic abilities in science (D29) | Initial beliefs about likelihood of graduating with a science degree (D29) |
| Performance in science classes (D29) | Updates in beliefs about ability in science (D83) |
| Updates in beliefs about ability in science (D83) | Final major choice (Y40) |
| Institutional rules regarding major declaration (D02) | Dynamics of belief updates (D83) |