Working Paper: NBER ID: w19128
Authors: Tom Vogl
Abstract: Using micro-data from 48 developing countries, I document a recent reversal in the income-fertility relationship and its aggregate implications. Before 1960, children from larger families had richer parents and obtained more education. By century's end, both patterns had reversed. Consequently, income differentials in fertility historically raised average education but now reduce it. While the reversal is unrelated to changes in GDP, women's work, sectoral composition, or health, half is attributable to rising aggregate education in the parents' generation. The results support a model in which rising skill returns lowered the minimum income at which parents invest in education.
Keywords: differential fertility; human capital; education; development; income
JEL Codes: E24; I25; J1; O1
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Parental economic status (durable goods ownership) (D19) | Fertility (J13) |
| Fertility (J13) | Educational attainment (I21) |
| Sibship size (J12) | Educational attainment (I21) |
| Rising average education levels in parents' generation (I24) | Reversal in sibship size and education relationship (I24) |
| Durable goods ownership before 1995 (L68) | Number of surviving children (J13) |
| Durable goods ownership post-2005 (L68) | Number of surviving children (J13) |