Working Paper: NBER ID: w19090
Authors: Anirban Mitra; Debraj Ray
Abstract: We model inter-group conflict driven by economic changes within groups. We show that if group incomes are low, increasing group incomes raises violence against that group, and lowers violence generated by it. We then apply the model to data on Hindu-Muslim violence in India. Our main result is that an increase in per-capita Muslim expenditures generates a large and significant increase in future religious conflict. An increase in Hindu expenditures has negative or no effect. These findings speak to the origins of Hindu-Muslim violence in post-Independence India.
Keywords: conflict; income distribution; religious violence; uneven growth
JEL Codes: O15; O43; O53
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Low group incomes (D31) | Increase in violence against that group (J15) |
| Low group incomes (D31) | Decrease in violence generated by that group (D74) |
| Increase in per capita Muslim expenditures (Z12) | Increase in future religious conflict (Z12) |
| Increase in per capita Hindu expenditures (Z12) | Decrease in future religious conflict (Z12) |