Working Paper: NBER ID: w19042
Authors: Jason M. Lindo
Abstract: This paper considers the relationship between local economic conditions and health with a focus on different approaches to geographic aggregation. After reviewing the tradeoffs associated with more- and less-disaggregated analyses-including an investigation of the migratory response to changing economic conditions-I update earlier state-level analyses of mortality and infant health and then consider how the estimated effects vary when the analysis is conducted at differing levels of geographic aggregation. This analysis reveals that more-disaggregated analyses severely understate the extent to which downturns are associated with improved health. Further investigation reveals that county economic conditions have an independent effect on mortality but that state and regional economic conditions are stronger predictors. I also leverage county-level data to explore heterogeneity in the link between county economic conditions and health across states, demonstrating that local downturns lead to the greatest improvements in health in low-income states.
Keywords: local economic conditions; health outcomes; geographic aggregation; mortality; infant health
JEL Codes: E32; I10; J20
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Geographic Aggregation (R12) | Health Improvements Estimates (I12) |
| Local Economic Downturns (R11) | Improvements in Health in Low-Income States (I14) |
| Unemployment Rate Increase (J64) | Decrease in Overall Mortality (I12) |
| Unemployment Rate Increase at Conception (J64) | Decrease in Low Birth Weight Incidence (J89) |
| Unemployment Rate Increase at Conception (J64) | Decrease in Very Low Birth Weight Incidence (J19) |