Working Paper: NBER ID: w18967
Authors: Richard G. Newell; Stuart Iler
Abstract: We explore the principal trends that are shaping the future landscape of energy supply, demand, and trade. We take a long-term view, assessing trends on the time scale of a generation by looking 25 years into the past, taking stock of the current situation, and projecting 25 years into the future. We view these market, technology, and policy trends at a global scale, as well as assess the key regional dynamics that are substantially altering the energy scene. The shift from West to East in the locus of energy growth and the turnaround of North American gas and oil production are the most pronounced of these currents. Key uncertainties include the strength of economic and population growth in emerging economies, the stringency of future actions to reduce carbon emissions, the magnitude of unconventional natural gas and oil development in non-OPEC countries, and the stability of OPEC oil supplies.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: Q41; Q43; Q47
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| shift in energy growth from west to east (O53) | global energy dynamics (P18) |
| turnaround of North American oil and gas production (L71) | energy trade balance (F19) |
| technological developments (like hydraulic fracturing) (O39) | production increases (E23) |
| production advancements (O39) | energy independence (F52) |
| economic growth (O49) | energy demand (Q41) |
| climate policy (Q58) | energy consumption growth (Q43) |
| policy decisions (D78) | energy mix outcomes (L94) |