Working Paper: NBER ID: w18940
Authors: David H. Autor; David Dorn; Gordon H. Hanson
Abstract: This paper explores the geographic overlap of trade and technology shocks across local labor markets in the United States. Regional exposure to technological change, as measured by specialization in routine task-intensive production and clerical occupations, is largely uncorrelated with regional exposure to trade competition from China. While the impacts of technology are present throughout the United States, the impacts of trade tend to be more geographically concentrated, owing in part to the spatial agglomeration of labor-intensive manufacturing. Our findings suggest that it should be possible to separately identify the impacts of recent changes in trade and technology on U.S. regional economies.
Keywords: Trade; Technology; Labor Markets; Income Inequality; Employment Polarization
JEL Codes: F16; O3; R1
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Regional exposure to technological change (O39) | Labor market outcomes (J48) |
| Regional exposure to trade competition from China (F69) | Labor market outcomes (J48) |
| Trade shocks (F14) | Labor market outcomes (J48) |
| Technology shocks (O33) | Labor market outcomes (J48) |
| Regional exposure to technological change (O39) | Regional exposure to trade competition from China (F69) |