Working Paper: NBER ID: w18938
Authors: David H. Autor; David Dorn; Gordon H. Hanson
Abstract: We juxtapose the effects of trade and technology on employment in U.S. local labor markets between 1990 and 2007. Labor markets whose initial industry composition exposes them to rising Chinese import competition experience significant falls in employment, particularly in manufacturing and among non-college workers. Labor markets susceptible to computerization due to specialization in routine task-intensive activities experience significant occupational polarization within manufacturing and nonmanufacturing but no net employment decline. Trade impacts rise in the 2000s as imports accelerate, while the effect of technology appears to shift from automation of production activities in manufacturing towards computerization of information-processing tasks in non manufacturing.
Keywords: Trade; Technology; Labor Markets; Employment; Occupational Polarization
JEL Codes: F16; J21; J23; O33
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Trade competition from China (F19) | Declines in manufacturing employment (O14) |
| Exposure to technological change (O33) | Occupational polarization (J29) |
| Trade competition from China (F19) | Employment metrics across demographic groups (J79) |
| Exposure to technological change (O33) | Employment metrics among females and older workers (J21) |