Working Paper: NBER ID: w1884
Authors: William T. Dickens
Abstract: Akerlof and Dickens (1982) suggested that in a model of criminal behavior which considered the effects of cognitive dissonance, increasing the severity of punishment could increase the crime rate. This paper demonstrates that that conjecture was correct. With cognitive dissonance, people may have to rationalize not committing crimes under normal circumstances if punishment is not severe. The rationalization may lead them to underestimate the expected utility of committing crimes when opportunities present themselves. If punishment is severe, then rationalization may not be necessary and people may be more likely to commit crimes when opportunities arise.
Keywords: Cognitive Dissonance; Crime; Punishment
JEL Codes: K42
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Punishment Severity (c) (K40) | Cognitive Dissonance (decreased need for rationalization) (D80) |
| Cognitive Dissonance (decreased need for rationalization) (D80) | Likelihood of Committing Crime (p2) (K42) |
| Punishment Severity (c) (K40) | Likelihood of Committing Crime (p2) (K42) |