Working Paper: NBER ID: w18673
Authors: Barry Eichengreen; Donghyun Park; Kwanho Shin
Abstract: We analyze the incidence and correlates of growth slowdowns in fast-growing middle-income countries, extending the analysis of an earlier paper (Eichengreen, Park and Shin 2012). We continue to find dispersion in the per capita income at which slowdowns occur. But in contrast to our earlier analysis which pointed to the existence of a single mode at which slowdowns occur in the neighborhood of $15,000-$16,000 2005 purchasing power parity dollars, new data point to two modes, one in the $10,000-$11,000 range and another at $15,000-$16,0000. A number of countries appear to have experienced two slowdowns, consistent with the existence of multiple modes. We conclude that high growth in middle-income countries may decelerate in steps rather than at a single point in time. This implies that a larger group of countries is at risk of a growth slowdown and that middle-income countries may find themselves slowing down at lower income levels than implied by our earlier estimates. We also find that slowdowns are less likely in countries where the population has a relatively high level of secondary and tertiary education and where high-technology products account for a relatively large share of exports, consistent with our earlier emphasis of the importance of moving up the technology ladder in order to avoid the middle-income trap.
Keywords: growth slowdowns; middle-income trap; human capital; technology; political regime changes
JEL Codes: E0; F0; N1
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| per capita GDP (E20) | likelihood of growth slowdown (F62) |
| per capita GDP squared (E20) | likelihood of growth slowdown (F62) |
| high levels of human capital (J24) | reduced probability of growth slowdown (O49) |
| high-tech exports ratio (F14) | reduced probability of growth slowdown (O49) |
| political regime changes (P39) | likelihood of growth slowdown (F62) |
| financial crises (G01) | likelihood of growth slowdown (F62) |
| old-age dependency ratios (J14) | likelihood of growth slowdown (F62) |