Working Paper: NBER ID: w18589
Authors: Jay Bhattacharya; Christina Gathmann; Grant Miller
Abstract: Political and economic transition is often blamed for Russia's 40% surge in deaths between 1990 and 1994. Highlighting that increases in mortality occurred primarily among alcohol-related causes and among working-age men (the heaviest drinkers), this paper investigates an alternative explanation: the demise of the 1985-1988 Gorbachev Anti-Alcohol Campaign. Using archival sources to build a new oblast-year data set spanning 1978-2000, we find a variety of evidence suggesting that the campaign's end explains a large share of the mortality crisis - implying that Russia's transition to capitalism and democracy was not as lethal as commonly suggested.
Keywords: Gorbachev; anti-alcohol campaign; mortality crisis; Russia; public health
JEL Codes: I12; I18; N34
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Gorbachev anti-alcohol campaign (E65) | Russian mortality (J11) |
| End of the Gorbachev anti-alcohol campaign (E65) | Increase in Russian mortality (I12) |
| Higher pre-campaign alcohol consumption (I12) | Larger mortality reductions during campaign (I12) |
| Higher pre-campaign alcohol consumption (I12) | Larger increases in mortality post-campaign (H56) |