Working Paper: NBER ID: w18520
Authors: Robert A. Moffitt
Abstract: The decline in the employment-population ratios for men and women over the period 2000-2007 prior to the Great Recession represents an historic turnaround in the evolution of U.S. employment. The decline is disproportionately concentrated among the less educated and younger groups within the male and female populations and, for women, disproportionately concentrated among the unmarried and those without children. About half of men's decline can be explained by declines in wage rates and by changes in nonlabor income and family structure influences, but the decline among women is more difficult to explain and requires distinguishing between married and unmarried women and those with and without children, who have each experienced quite different wage and employment trends. Neither taxes nor transfers appear likely to explain the employment declines, with the possible exception of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. Other influences such as the minimum wage or health factors do not appear to play a role, but increases in incarceration could have contributed to the decline among men.
Keywords: employment-population ratio; labor supply; demographic trends
JEL Codes: J20; J22
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Declines in wage rates (F66) | Decline in male employment-population ratio (J49) |
| Changes in non-labor income (E25) | Decline in male employment-population ratio (J49) |
| Changes in family structure (J12) | Decline in male employment-population ratio (J49) |
| Decline in female employment (J21) | Varies by marital status and presence of children (J12) |
| Wage increases (J31) | Higher employment rates among women (J21) |
| Incarceration rates (K14) | Declining employment rates for men (J63) |