Working Paper: NBER ID: w18438
Authors: Stelios Michalopoulos; Alireza Naghavi; Giovanni Prarolo
Abstract: In this study we explore the historical determinants of contemporary Muslim representation. Motivated by a plethora of case studies and historical accounts among Islamicists stressing the role of trade for the adoption of Islam, we construct detailed data on pre-Islamic trade routes, harbors, and ports to determine the empirical regularity of this argument. Our analysis—conducted across countries and across ethnic groups within countries—establishes that proximity to the pre-600 CE trade network is a robust predictor of today's Muslim adherence in the Old World. We also show that Islam spread successfully in regions that are ecologically similar to the birthplace of the religion, the Arabian Peninsula. Namely, territories characterized by a large share of arid and semi- arid regions dotted with few pockets of fertile land are more likely to host Muslim communities. We discuss the various mechanisms that may give rise to the observed pattern.
Keywords: Islam; Trade; Geography; Religious Adherence; Historical Analysis
JEL Codes: N0; N27; N3; O0; O43; Z0; Z1; Z12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Historical trade opportunities (N71) | Spread of Islam (Z12) |
| Proximity to trade routes (F19) | Intensity of adoption of Islam (Z12) |
| Geographical inequality (R12) | Intensity of adoption of Islam (Z12) |
| Historical trade routes (N73) | Contemporary distribution of Muslim societies (P40) |
| Proximity to pre-600 CE trade routes (N95) | Contemporary Muslim adherence (Z12) |
| Ecological similarity to the Arabian Peninsula (Q57) | Presence of Muslim communities (Z12) |