Working Paper: NBER ID: w18425
Authors: Patrick Francois; Ilia Rainer; Francesco Trebbi
Abstract: This paper presents new evidence on the power sharing layout of national political elites in a panel of African countries, most of them autocracies. We present a model of coalition formation across ethnic groups and structurally estimate it employing data on the ethnicity of cabinet ministers since independence. As opposed to the view of a single ethnic elite monolithically controlling power, we show that African ruling coalitions are large and that political power is allocated proportionally to population shares across ethnic groups. This holds true even restricting the analysis to the subsample of the most powerful ministerial posts. We argue that the likelihood of revolutions from outsiders and the threat of coups from insiders are major forces explaining such allocations. Further, over-representation of the ruling ethnic group is quantitatively substantial, but not different from standard formateur premia in parliamentary democracies. We explore theoretically how proportional allocation for the elites of each group may still result in misallocations in the non-elite population.
Keywords: Power Sharing; Ethnic Groups; African Politics; Coalition Formation; Autocracies
JEL Codes: H1; O38; O55
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| African ruling coalitions are large (D71) | political power is allocated proportionally to population shares across ethnic groups (D72) |
| threat of revolutions from outsiders (F52) | political power is allocated proportionally to population shares across ethnic groups (D72) |
| threat of coups from insiders (D73) | political power is allocated proportionally to population shares across ethnic groups (D72) |
| proportional allocation for the elites of each group (D72) | misallocations in the non-elite population (I24) |
| intra-elite conflicts (D74) | larger role in explaining political and economic failures in Africa (O55) |