Working Paper: NBER ID: w18363
Authors: Gerardo Della Paolera; Alan M. Taylor
Abstract: This paper examines sovereign lending to Latin America and the Caribbean from 1820 to 1913. We examine four waves of capital flows where defaults were followed by a return to market access. In spite of extended default, countries kept promising high returns that attracted international investors again and again: financial autarky thus gave way to eras of high integration to global markets as measured by sovereign risk pricing. We discuss imperfections of the sovereign debt institutional context in the region and discuss a menu of options that some countries used to seek funds in the global financial markets after defaults. The parallel with the modern Latin American and Caribbean sovereign bond market experience is striking.
Keywords: Sovereign Debt; Latin America; Capital Flows; Defaults; Financial Markets
JEL Codes: F34; H63; N16; N26; N46
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Default (Y70) | Exclusion from international capital markets (F65) |
| Effective debt management (H63) | Access to capital markets (G19) |
| Default history (Y70) | Future borrowing costs (G32) |
| Political and economic stability (P16) | Investor confidence (G24) |
| High returns promised by borrowers (G51) | Attraction of international investors (F21) |