Working Paper: NBER ID: w18350
Authors: Eli Berman; Laurence R. Iannaccone; Giuseppe Ragusa
Abstract: Catholic countries of Europe pose a demographic puzzle -fertility is unprecedentedly low (total fertility=1.3) despite low female labor force participation. We model three channels of religious effects on demand for children: through changing norms, reduced market wages, and reduced costs of childrearing. We estimate their effects using new panel data on church attendance and clergy employment for thirteen European countries from 1960-2000, spanning the Second Vatican Council (1962-65). Catholic theology is uniform across countries. Yet service varied considerably across countries and over time, especially before the Council, reflecting differences in Church provision of education, health, welfare and other social services. We use differential declines in service provision --measured by nuns/capita-- to identify its effect on fertility, controlling for secular trends. They are large: 300 to 400 children per nun. Reduced religiosity (measured by church attendance) has no effect for Protestants, but predicts fertility decline for Catholics. The data suggest that service provision and religiosity complement each other -a finding consistent with preferential provision of services to church attendees. Nuns outperform priests in predicting fertility, suggesting that the childrearing cost channel dominates theology and norms.
Keywords: fertility; Catholic Church; service provision; demography; religiosity
JEL Codes: H31; H41; I3; I38; J13; J4; Z12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Decline in number of nuns per capita (Z12) | Reduction in fertility rates among Catholics (J13) |
| Decline in clergy (nuns) (Z12) | Diminished provision of family-friendly social services (J12) |
| Diminished provision of family-friendly social services (J12) | Increased costs associated with childrearing (J13) |
| Increased costs associated with childrearing (J13) | Reduction in fertility rates (J13) |
| Reduced religiosity (church attendance) (Z12) | Fertility decline for Catholics (J13) |
| Reduced religiosity (church attendance) (Z12) | No significant effect on fertility for Protestants (J19) |
| Nuns' contributions to fertility (J13) | Priests' contributions to fertility (Z12) |