Working Paper: NBER ID: w18345
Authors: Olivier Deschenes
Abstract: This paper presents a survey of the empirical literature studying the relationship between health outcomes, temperature, and adaptation to temperature extremes. The objective of the paper is to highlight the many remaining gaps in the empirical literature and to provide guidelines for improving the current Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) literature that seeks to incorporate human health and adaptation in its framework. I begin by presenting the conceptual and methodological issues associated with the measurement of the effect of temperature extremes on health, and the role of adaptation in possibly muting these effects. The main conclusion that emerges from the literature is that despite the wide variety of data sets and settings most studies find that temperature extremes lead to significant reductions in health, generally measured with excess mortality. Regarding the role of adaptation in mitigating the effects of extreme temperature on health, the available knowledge is limited, in part due to the lack of real-world data on measures of adaptation behaviors. Finally, the paper discusses the implications of the currently available evidence for assessments of potential human health impacts of global climate change.
Keywords: Climate Change; Human Health; Adaptation; Temperature Extremes
JEL Codes: I1; Q5; Q54
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| temperature (Y60) | health impacts (I12) |
| temperature extremes (Q54) | nonlinear health impacts (I12) |
| temperature extremes (Q54) | health outcomes (I14) |
| extreme heat (Q54) | immediate mortality impacts (I12) |
| cold temperatures (Q54) | delayed effects on mortality (I12) |
| adaptation measures (Q52) | mitigate health impacts of extreme temperatures (I14) |