Working Paper: NBER ID: w18334
Authors: Nir Jaimovich; Henry E. Siu
Abstract: Job polarization refers to the shrinking share of employment in middle-skill, routine occupations experienced recently, over the last 35 years. Jobless recoveries refers to the slow rebound in aggregate employment following recent recessions, despite recoveries in aggregate output. We show how these two phenomena are related. First, essentially all employment loss in routine occupations occurs in economic downturns. Second, jobless recoveries in the aggregate can be accounted for by jobless recoveries in the routine occupations that are disappearing.
Keywords: Job Polarization; Jobless Recoveries; Labor Market Dynamics
JEL Codes: E0; J0
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| job polarization (J29) | jobless recoveries (J64) |
| economic downturns (F44) | job losses in routine occupations (F66) |
| job losses in routine occupations (F66) | jobless recoveries (J64) |
| job polarization (J29) | decline in routine occupations (J29) |
| job polarization era (J29) | jobless recoveries (J64) |