Working Paper: NBER ID: w18239
Authors: Shamena Anwar; Hanming Fang
Abstract: We develop a model of a Parole Board contemplating whether to grant parole release to a prisoner who has finished serving their minimum sentence. The model implies a simple outcome test for racial prejudice robust to the inframarginality problem. Our test involves running simple regressions of whether a prisoner recidivates on the exposure time to the risk of recidivism and its square, using only the sample of prisoners who are granted parole release strictly between their minimum and maximum sentences and separately by race. If the coefficient estimates on the exposure time term differ by race, then there is evidence of racial prejudice against the racial group with the smaller coefficient estimate. We implement our test for prejudice using data from Pennsylvania from January 1996 to December 31, 2001. Although we find racial differences in time served, we find no evidence for racial prejudice on the part of the Parole Board based on our outcome test.
Keywords: racial prejudice; parole board; recidivism; discretionary release
JEL Codes: J71; K42
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| race (J15) | parole board's decision-making process (D70) |
| parole board's decision-making process (D70) | perceived rate of rehabilitation (H43) |
| perceived rate of rehabilitation (H43) | granting of parole (K40) |
| time served (K40) | recidivism probabilities (K14) |
| time on parole (C41) | probability of recidivating (K14) |
| square of time on parole (C41) | probability of recidivating (K14) |
| race (J15) | recidivism rates (K14) |
| minority inmates (J15) | higher probability of rehabilitation before release (K35) |