Working Paper: NBER ID: w18235
Authors: Frank R. Lichtenberg
Abstract: I examine the impact of pharmaceutical innovation, as measured by the vintage (world launch year) of prescription drugs used, on longevity using longitudinal, country-level data on 30 developing and high-income countries during the period 2000-2009. I control for fixed country and year effects, real per capita income, the unemployment rate, mean years of schooling, the urbanization rate, real per capita health expenditure (public and private), the DPT immunization rate among children ages 12-23 months, HIV prevalence and tuberculosis incidence. \n\nThe estimates indicate that life expectancy at all ages and survival rates above age 25 increased faster in countries with larger increases in drug vintage (measured in three different ways), ceteris paribus, and that the increase in life expectancy at birth due to the increase in the fraction of drugs consumed that were launched after 1990 was 1.27 years--73% of the actual increase in life expectancy at birth.
Keywords: Pharmaceutical Innovation; Longevity; Health Expenditure; Socioeconomic Factors
JEL Codes: I12; J11; O33; O4
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Pharmaceutical innovation (O35) | Longevity (C41) |
| Increase in drug vintage (L65) | Life expectancy at birth (J19) |
| Increase in drug vintage (L65) | Survival rates above age 25 (C41) |
| Increase in unemployment (J64) | Life expectancy at birth (J19) |
| Increase in HIV prevalence (O15) | Life expectancy (J17) |