Working Paper: NBER ID: w18222
Authors: Erik Snowberg; Justin Wolfers; Eric Zitzewitz
Abstract: Prediction markets--markets used to forecast future events--have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by economic forecasters. We show that prediction markets have a number of attractive features: they quickly incorporate new information, are largely efficient, and impervious to manipulation. Moreover, markets generally exhibit lower statistical errors than professional forecasters and polls. Finally, we show how markets can be used to both uncover the economic model behind forecasts, as well as test existing economic models.
Keywords: Prediction Markets; Economic Forecasting; Market Efficiency
JEL Codes: C53; G14
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| prediction markets (G13) | economic outcomes (F61) |
| market behavior (D40) | economic theoretical frameworks (D46) |
| prediction market prices (G13) | accuracy of economic predictions (E37) |
| prediction markets (G13) | outperforming traditional forecasting methods (C53) |