Working Paper: NBER ID: w18129
Authors: Suresh Naidu
Abstract: This paper estimates the political and economic effects of the 19th century disenfranchisement of black citizens in the U.S. South. Using adjacent county-pairs that straddle state boundaries, I examine the effect of voting restrictions on political competition, public goods, and factor markets. I find that poll taxes and literacy tests each lowered overall electoral turnout by 8-22% and increased the Democratic vote share in elections by 1-7%. Employing newly collected data on schooling inputs, I show that disenfranchisement reduced the teacher-child ratio in black schools by 10-23%, with no significant effects on white teacher-child ratios. I develop a model of suffrage restriction and redistribution in a 2-factor economy with migration and agricultural production to generate sufficient statistics for welfare analysis of the incidence of black disenfranchisement. Consistent with the model, disenfranchised counties experienced a 3.5% increase in farm values per acre, despite a 4% fall in the black population. The estimated factor market responses suggest that black labor bore a collective loss from disenfranchisement equivalent to at least 15% of annual income, with landowners experiencing a 12% gain.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: H7; N11
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Disenfranchised counties (J15) | Increased farm values per acre (Q15) |
| Disenfranchised counties (J15) | Decline in black population (R23) |
| Increased farm values per acre (Q15) | Economic benefits accrued to landowners (Q15) |
| Decline in black population (R23) | Corresponding losses experienced by black laborers (J79) |
| Poll taxes and literacy tests (K16) | Reduced overall electoral turnout (K16) |
| Poll taxes and literacy tests (K16) | Increased Democratic vote share (D79) |
| Reduced overall electoral turnout (K16) | Lowered black political participation (J79) |
| Lowered black political participation (J79) | Favored the Democratic party (J79) |
| Disenfranchisement laws (K16) | Reduced teacher-child ratio in black schools (I24) |
| Disenfranchisement laws (K16) | No significant effect on white teacher-child ratios (I24) |