Working Paper: NBER ID: w17994
Authors: Daron Acemoglu
Abstract: Following on Keynes's Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren, this paper develops conjectures about the world we will leave to our grandchildren. It starts by outlining the 10 most important trends that have defined our economic, social, and political lives over the last 100 years. It then provides a framework for interpreting these trends, emphasizing the role of the expansion of political and civil rights and institutional changes in this process. It then uses this framework for extrapolating these 10 trends into the next 100 years.
Keywords: Rights Revolution; Economic Growth; Political Rights; Technological Change
JEL Codes: O10; O30; P16; P17
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Rights Revolution (P14) | Political Landscape Transformation (P27) |
| Political Landscape Transformation (P27) | Greater Democratic Participation (D72) |
| Political Landscape Transformation (P27) | Redistribution of Resources (D30) |
| Rights Revolution (P14) | Economic Growth (O49) |
| Economic Growth (O49) | Technological Advancements (O33) |
| Inclusive Institutions (D02) | Technological Progress (O49) |
| Rights Revolution (P14) | Decline in Violence and War (D74) |
| Rights Revolution (P14) | Work Transformation (J29) |
| Rights Revolution (P14) | Health Improvements (I19) |