Working Paper: NBER ID: w17871
Authors: Alan De Bromhead; Barry Eichengreen; Kevin H. O'Rourke
Abstract: We examine the impact of the Great Depression on the share of votes for right-wing anti-system parties in elections in the 1920s and 1930s. We confirm the existence of a link between political extremism and economic hard times as captured by growth or contraction of the economy. What mattered was not simply growth at the time of the election but cumulative growth performance. But the effect of the Depression on support for right-wing anti-system parties was not equally powerful under all economic, political and social circumstances. It was greatest in countries with relatively short histories of democracy, with existing extremist parties, and with electoral systems that created low hurdles to parliamentary representation. Above all, it was greatest where depressed economic conditions were allowed to persist.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: N0; N14
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Cumulative GDP growth (O47) | Electoral support for rightwing antisystem parties (D72) |
| Longer and deeper contractions in GDP (E20) | Increased support for rightwing antisystem parties (P14) |
| Historical democratic traditions (D72) | Relationship between economic hardship and political extremism (F52) |
| Presence of extremist parties in parliament (D72) | Relationship between economic hardship and political extremism (F52) |
| Structure of electoral systems (D72) | Electoral success of antisystem parties (D72) |
| Economic conditions (E66) | Rise of rightwing antisystem parties (P39) |